“十四五”收官，潜在影响？——宏观经济年度展望系列之三

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the progress and implications of China's 14th Five-Year Plan as it approaches its conclusion, highlighting the completion status of various targets and the potential shift in policy focus towards energy efficiency and carbon reduction rather than production cuts [1][5]. Understanding Previous Five-Year Plans - The Five-Year Plans are essential long-term strategies for China's economic and social development, with a high completion rate of set targets [2][7]. - The plans are structured into a "three-level four-category" system, involving national, provincial, and local levels, and include development, special, regional, and spatial planning [7][8]. Progress of the 14th Five-Year Plan - The 14th Five-Year Plan has a clearer long-term goal of building a modern socialist country by 2035, with a focus on quality of economic development rather than just growth rates [3][11]. - As of the end of 2023, out of 20 indicators set in the plan, 4 were completed ahead of schedule, while 4 lagged behind expectations, particularly in energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction [4][26]. Implications of the 14th Five-Year Plan's Conclusion - Historically, regions have implemented measures like production cuts to meet energy consumption and carbon emission targets as the end of a Five-Year Plan approaches [5][26]. - The current policy shift emphasizes energy efficiency improvements over production cuts, potentially leading to significant investment demands in energy-saving technologies [5][26]. Key Indicators and Their Status - The 14th Five-Year Plan includes various indicators across economic development, innovation, and social welfare, with a notable focus on improving living standards and environmental quality [13][27]. - Specific targets include a GDP growth rate maintained within a reasonable range, an increase in R&D expenditure, and improvements in urbanization and social security coverage [13][27].