中金2025年展望 | 工控：多点着力，蓄势待发

Semiconductor Industry - RF power supply is a critical component of semiconductor equipment, with a market size expected to reach $940 million in 2024 [9] - RF power supply is highly customized and closely coupled with semiconductor manufacturing processes, leading to high product barriers and gross margins of 55-60$33 billion) in China, 19% in North America, 19% in Europe, 12% in Japan, 7% in South Korea, 6% in Taiwan, and 2% in other regions [10] - The average gross margin of semiconductor equipment companies in 2023 was 45.1%, with direct materials accounting for 89% of the cost structure [107] Industrial Automation and Control - The overseas industrial automation market is estimated to be 3-4 times larger than the Chinese market, with higher profitability (10-20% higher gross margins) [16][34] - Localization strategies are crucial for industrial automation companies expanding overseas, as seen with Yaskawa's 30-year exploration in the Chinese market [16] - The industrial automation market is highly competitive domestically, leading to lower gross margins compared to overseas markets [34] - The global industrial automation market in 2023 was dominated by companies like Siemens, ABB, and Emerson, with Chinese companies like Inovance ranking 11th globally [47][48] AI and Data Center Power Supply - AI server power supply is a high-growth, high-profit sector driven by the demand for higher power density and efficiency [25][73] - The power consumption of AI training is significant, with a single GPT-MoE-1.8T training consuming 4MW of power [73] - AI server power supply prices are expected to increase as power density and efficiency requirements rise, with prices potentially reaching 0.8-1 RMB per watt for 3.3kW power supplies [73] - Data center power systems are evolving to include multi-level backup systems, including DRAM, UPS, and diesel generators, to ensure continuous power supply [120] Humanoid Robots and Low-Altitude Economy - Humanoid robots and low-altitude flying vehicles are emerging as new productive forces, with significant commercialization potential [29][31] - Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is expected to enter limited production in 2025, with mass production planned for 2026 [37][43] - Low-altitude flying vehicles, particularly eVTOLs, are expected to follow a development path similar to that of new energy vehicles, with 2025 potentially being a breakthrough year [31] - Companies like Huawei and NVIDIA are actively investing in humanoid robot technologies, with Huawei collaborating with 16 companies to advance embodied intelligence [23][45] Supercapacitors and Energy Storage - Supercapacitors offer a solution for periodic power fluctuations, with hybrid supercapacitors (HSC) capable of charging to 80% in 20 seconds [7] - Supercapacitors have a longer lifespan and durability compared to traditional lead-acid and lithium batteries, reducing the need for backup batteries and lowering maintenance costs [7] - The use of supercapacitors in data centers can improve operational efficiency by providing reliable power supply over longer periods [7] Industrial Power Supply - The industrial power supply market is expected to grow, driven by AI and semiconductor industries, with opportunities in server power supplies and RF power supplies [25] - RF power supply is a key component in semiconductor manufacturing, used in processes like etching, thin film deposition, and ion implantation [9] - The domestic RF power supply market is expected to benefit from import substitution, with local companies like Injet Electric and Aikosibo increasing their market share [108]