中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、大类资产、科技硬件、个股洞察

Group 1: Central Economic Work Conference Insights - The article discusses the use of AI to analyze the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on the emotional sentiment of the policy statements made during the meeting [3][4][5] - A comprehensive sentiment index was developed, indicating that a more positive tone in the policy statements correlates with a greater decline in interest rates and a more stable stock market performance over three months post-conference [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a hawkish outlook for future economic conditions and interest rates [8][10] - The Fed's guidance suggests a cautious approach to avoid past inflation missteps, with expectations of further rate cuts in 2025 [8][10][23] Group 3: Consumer Electronics and AI - The outlook for 2025 indicates a new era for consumer electronics driven by edge AI, with expected moderate growth in the smartphone market and new upgrade cycles [13][18] - Investment opportunities are identified in AI smartphones, AI PCs, and innovations in wearable technology, as well as the optical industry [13][18] Group 4: Science and Technology Sector Performance - The article highlights the strong performance of the science and technology sector, particularly since September 24, with the Science and Technology 50 Index rising over 50% from its bottom [20][21] - A framework for evaluating the investment value and valuation system of science and technology companies is proposed, focusing on industry trends and company fundamentals [20][21]