刘凯：2025全球经济金融形势展望及中国的应对之策

Global Macroeconomic Trends and Outlook - Global inflation rate peaked at 8.62% in 2022 and has been declining since, though it remains higher than pre-pandemic levels Emerging markets face higher inflation pressures compared to developed economies [2] - Global GDP growth is slowing, with IMF projecting 3.23% growth in 2024, down from 3.32% in 2023, and a slight recovery to 3.25% in 2025 [3] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are leading global growth with projected growth rates exceeding 5.3% in 2024 and 5% in 2025 [3] - Developed economies show divergent growth trends, with the US performing relatively well while Japan and the EU lag behind [3] Global Financial Trends and Outlook - Global liquidity contraction is expected to reverse as major economies adopt looser monetary policies, with M2 and credit markets likely to expand in 2025 [14] - The US dollar remains strong, and its dominance is expected to continue into 2025, with potential support from Trump's policies and private cryptocurrencies [16] - Cross-border capital flows have been declining since 2021, and this trend may continue due to trade protectionism and geopolitical uncertainties [16] - Global asset prices show mixed trends: US and other major stock markets are strong, while Chinese stocks rebounded after policy interventions in late 2024 [17] - Gold prices are rising as a safe-haven asset, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025 due to geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures [17] Cryptocurrency Market Trends - The global cryptocurrency market reached a total market capitalization of $3.2 trillion by November 2024, with Bitcoin accounting for $2.1 trillion [9] - Bitcoin surged from $68,000 to $100,000 within a month after Trump's re-election, driven by his support for cryptocurrencies [9] - Cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins, may strengthen the US dollar's dominance in the short to medium term [9] Impact on China's Economy and Policy Responses - China faces increased external financial risks due to a strong US dollar, capital outflows, and geopolitical uncertainties [10] - Domestic challenges include a large output gap, weak demand, deflationary pressures, and structural reform pressures [11] - Policy recommendations include maintaining strong capital controls, flexible exchange rate mechanisms, and comprehensive stimulus measures [6][12] - Structural reforms, including fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and population policies, are crucial for stabilizing the economy and boosting long-term growth [7][8] Geopolitical Risks and Commodity Prices - Middle East tensions, including the Israel-Palestine conflict and Red Sea instability, may disrupt energy supplies and increase commodity price volatility [15] - The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, and its potential resolution in 2025 could reshape global energy and food trade, benefiting global growth and price stability [15]