GGII：锂电材料投资扩产“破局之路”

Industry Overview - The domestic lithium battery material industry planned 48 projects from January to October 2024, with a total investment of approximately 135.9 billion yuan, a 75% decrease compared to 2023 [2] - The industry is in an adjustment period, with high-end capacity utilization gradually recovering and improving, while low-end capacity remains oversupplied [9] Cathode Materials - The expansion of cathode material projects is mainly focused on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) due to its safety and cost advantages [6] - LFP batteries accounted for 70.9% of the domestic market share in the first three quarters of 2024, reaching nearly 80% in October [6] Anode Materials - Anode materials have the largest number of expansion projects among the five major materials, accounting for nearly half of the total [6] - The demand for fast-charging anode materials and silicon-based anode materials is growing due to the rise of new products like 46-series large cylindrical batteries and semi-solid-state batteries [6] Separator Materials - Only about 7 separator expansion projects were planned from January to October 2024 [7] - The slow expansion is due to the completion of capacity layout by first-tier separator companies in the previous two years and the limited capacity of overseas equipment manufacturers [7] Electrolyte and Copper Foil - Only 3 electrolyte expansion projects and 1 copper foil expansion project were planned from January to October 2024 [8] - Electrolyte companies lacked funds for further expansion due to negative sales-to-cash ratios in the first half of 2024 [8] - Copper foil companies had no expansion plans due to low processing fees and high copper prices in the first half of 2024 [8] International Trends - Overseas battery and automotive companies are shifting to LFP technology, with major players like LG Energy Solution, SK On, and Samsung SDI actively deploying LFP batteries [14] - Automotive companies such as Tesla, Volkswagen, BMW, and others have already adopted or plan to adopt LFP batteries [14] Future Outlook - The lithium battery material industry is expected to remain cautious in expansion in 2025, with a new wave of expansion cycles likely to emerge in 2026 [16] - Local governments should focus on attracting high-quality projects by monitoring industry developments and supporting companies with strong technological innovation capabilities [16]