Boeing's Space Business Could Be Unstoppable in 2025. It Just Needs 1 Thing to Happen First.

ULA's Challenges and Recovery - 2023 was the worst year ever for United Launch Alliance (ULA) by some measures [1] - SpaceX's Falcon 9, with its reusable design and lower costs, quickly overtook ULA as America's premier rocket launcher, especially for national security missions [2] - ULA's launch cadence declined further as it phased out Atlas V and Delta IV rockets in favor of the new Vulcan rocket [2] Vulcan Rocket Development and Launch - ULA's Vulcan Centaur rocket, delayed by Blue Origin engine issues, COVID, and development challenges, made its first launch in early 2024 [3] - The second Vulcan launch in October 2024 was intended to qualify the rocket for national security missions, but an anomaly occurred with a solid rocket booster built by Northrop Grumman [11] - The FAA has not yet officially approved Vulcan for another flight or certified it for national security missions, though ULA expects certification soon without additional testing [12][13] ULA's Future Plans and Goals - ULA aims for 20 to 30 launches annually, with a 50-50 split between government and commercial missions, a healthier ratio compared to less than 25% commercial launches in 2014 [22] - ULA has 16 Vulcan rockets in inventory and Blue Origin is producing engines fast enough to support 26 Vulcan launches per year [7] - ULA expects to launch 20 times in 2025, including two national security missions, pending certification [21] Amazon Contract and Commercial Prospects - ULA secured a contract with Amazon to launch 47 rockets for Kuiper internet satellites, accounting for three to four years of ULA's commercial launch goals [8] - The Amazon deal provides a strong start for ULA, but the company still needs government support to meet its broader objectives [9] - ULA's commercial launch percentage increased from 0% in 2013 to 7% in 2014, indicating the ambitious nature of its 50% commercial goal [15] Boeing's Role and Challenges - ULA, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, dominated U.S. space launches in the late 2000s but faced competition from SpaceX's Falcon 9 [9] - Boeing's recent issues, such as the airplane door plug incident, have raised concerns about its broader aerospace operations [19] - Boeing is counting on ULA's Vulcan rocket to regain momentum in the space launch market, particularly with national security missions in 2025 [21]