野村东方国际证券2025A股市场展望｜多重挑战与增长动力切换

Global Economic and Market Outlook - Geopolitical uncertainties are reducing visibility for the 2025 capital markets, with most global economies facing more severe growth pressures [1] - International investors' focus on China is expected to increase, especially under the strong stimulus policies from the central government, which may drive China's economic recovery and bring substantial returns to the capital markets [1] - The US trade protectionism trend is unlikely to fade, and higher tariffs and production costs may significantly push up US inflation levels in the medium to long term [5] - A strong dollar environment is unfavorable for emerging markets, but this has been largely priced in by the market [5] China's Economic Recovery and Market Performance - China's economy is expected to achieve a 4% year-on-year growth in 2025, with PPI downward pressure potentially easing and driving the GDP deflator to rise [5] - The recovery of the A-share market is more influenced by the pace of policy and fundamental recovery, with domestic demand likely to be the direction of policy stimulus [5] - The CSI 300 Index is predicted to have net profit growth rates of 4.5% and 6.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - Revenue growth for the CSI 300 Index is forecasted at 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] Investment Themes for 2025 - Domestic Demand Recovery: Focus on industries with strong valuation elasticity like food and beverage, strong performance elasticity like real estate, and strong policy elasticity like pharmaceuticals, as well as service consumption, quality essential consumption, and trendy optional consumption industries [6] - Re-inflation: Pay attention to cyclical industries driven by PPI recovery expectations, especially those with stronger pricing power in China, such as steel, coal, and aluminum [6] - High-Growth Tech Sectors: Look for opportunities in AI, energy storage, and other high-growth tech themes [6] Market Performance and Policy Impact - The A-share market rebounded significantly in Q4 2024, with the CSI 300 Index returning to its level at the end of 2022 [3] - The market's recovery was driven by expectations of China's economic recovery following a policy shift, which helped erase the losses from 2023 [3] - The financial sector's net profit growth is expected to remain flat in 2025, with banking constrained by low interest margins and non-banking financials maintaining stable revenue growth [6] - Re-inflation policies are expected to steadily advance, leading to a slight recovery in PPI growth rates [6]