日经调查预测:中国2025经济增长4.4%

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for China, highlighting the impact of potential U.S. tariffs under the new Trump administration, with predictions of GDP growth rates declining due to external pressures and internal structural issues [2][6][8]. Economic Growth Predictions - The average GDP growth rate forecast for 2024 is 4.9%, which aligns with the government's target of around 5% [2][6]. - For 2025, the average GDP growth rate is projected at 4.4%, a slight decrease from previous estimates, with expectations of further decline to 4.1% in 2026 due to the impact of tariffs [6][7]. Impact of U.S. Tariffs - Economists predict that if the U.S. imposes additional tariffs of 20% to 30%, it could lead to a depreciation of the RMB to between 8.5 and 9.1 per USD [3][7]. - The anticipated "last-minute demand" from U.S. companies seeking to stock up on Chinese goods before tariffs take effect may provide a temporary boost to the economy in late 2024 [2]. Structural Issues in the Economy - The ongoing real estate downturn is causing a negative wealth effect, leading consumers to tighten their spending [2][8]. - Retail sales growth is weak, with urban areas experiencing significant declines, such as a 14.1% drop in Beijing and a 13.5% drop in Shanghai [8]. Government Policy Responses - The Chinese government is expected to increase the fiscal deficit rate to at least 3.5% in response to economic challenges, with plans for additional government bonds and special bonds for infrastructure [8][9]. - There is speculation that specific support measures will be announced during the National People's Congress in March 2025, aimed at boosting consumer confidence and addressing low birth rates [9]. Currency Outlook - Economists have adjusted their forecasts for the RMB, predicting it will depreciate to around 7.37 per USD by the end of 2025, reflecting increased selling pressure due to economic uncertainties [9][10]. - Historical context suggests that China may tolerate some depreciation of the RMB as a countermeasure to U.S. tariffs, similar to actions taken during the previous Trump administration [10].