中金 | 再思考：特朗普2.0的政策顺序及影响

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the potential economic and financial impacts of Trump's policies, particularly focusing on tariffs, fiscal policies, and their effects on inflation, commodity prices, and global economic divergence [6][7][8] - Trump's policy sequence is expected to be "tariffs first, tax cuts later, save first, spend later," with a focus on immigration, energy, and defense policies in the early stages of his administration [17][20] - The article highlights the potential for a "Goldilocks economy" in the US, where moderate inflation and fiscal policies could sustain economic growth without overheating [29][70] Policy Sequence and Impact - Trump's policy sequence is expected to prioritize tariffs and fiscal tightening in the first half of 2025, followed by tax cuts in the second half [17][20] - The first budget reconciliation bill is likely to focus on immigration, energy, and defense policies, while the second bill will address tax cuts [37] - The article suggests that Trump's policies could lead to a "tight fiscal, loose monetary, and wide credit" macroeconomic policy mix, which could extend the US economic cycle [10][50] Tariffs and Inflation - The impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, with historical examples showing mixed results [5][24][67] - In the current context of high inflation, widespread tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures, potentially leading to cautious implementation by the Trump administration [5][68] - The article notes that tariffs could be used as a bargaining tool in international negotiations, suggesting a gradual approach to tariff implementation [46] Global Economic Divergence - Trump's tariff policies could lead to economic divergence between the US and other countries, with non-US economies facing export demand declines, trade condition deterioration, and currency depreciation pressures [8][64] - The article predicts that the US dollar could remain strong even if the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, as other central banks may cut rates more aggressively [52] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - The article suggests that fiscal deficits may not expand significantly if tariff implementation and government spending cuts outpace tax cuts [10] - Trump's administration is expected to focus on reducing government inefficiencies and cutting unnecessary expenditures, potentially saving between $83 billion to$140 billion annually [60] Commodity and Bond Markets - Tariffs could put downward pressure on commodity prices, particularly for metals like copper, and lead to lower bond yields in non-US countries [3][8] - The article highlights that oil prices, being more cyclical, could initially rise before falling in response to tariff policies [3] Historical Context and Comparisons - The article draws comparisons between Trump's first and second terms, noting that the economic backdrop in 2025 is different, with higher inflation and a stronger growth base [12] - Historical examples, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, are cited to illustrate the potential deflationary effects of tariffs [67] Legislative Process - The article discusses the use of the budget reconciliation process to pass key legislation, with two separate bills expected in 2025: one focusing on immigration, energy, and defense, and the other on tax cuts [35][37] - The legislative process could face challenges due to the narrow Republican majority in the House and concerns over fiscal expansion [18]