前瞻2025：电池产业链利润如何分配？

Industry Profit Distribution - The industry profit of major lithium battery listed companies decreased from over 200 billion yuan in 2022 to 125.9 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The profit of major lithium salt and material companies was halved to 61 billion yuan, with lithium mining companies' profit dropping to 52.1 billion yuan, lithium iron phosphate cathode companies incurring a loss of -5.4 billion yuan, ternary cathode companies earning 4.2 billion yuan, anode companies earning 4.2 billion yuan, and electrolyte companies earning 5.8 billion yuan [1] - The profit of major battery companies increased from 40.4 billion yuan in 2022 to 51.6 billion yuan in 2023, while equipment companies remained stable at 7.1 billion yuan [1] Lithium Price Cycle - The current lithium price cycle adjustment is longer and more volatile than previous cycles, exceeding market expectations and making lithium battery companies more sensitive [2] Profit Allocation from 2022 to 2024 - In 2022, the industry's main profit was concentrated upstream, with major lithium salt and material companies earning 161.7 billion yuan, lithium mining companies earning 112 billion yuan, ternary cathode, lithium iron phosphate cathode, anode, and separator companies each earning 9 billion yuan, and electrolyte companies earning 14 billion yuan [7] - Battery companies earned 40.4 billion yuan, and equipment companies earned 7.4 billion yuan in 2022 [7] - From 2022 to 2024, the profit share of battery companies in the overall industry increased from 19% to 67%, while the profit share of major lithium salt companies decreased from 53% to 16% [8] - The profit share of equipment companies increased from 3.5% to 8.3% [8] Profit Changes in 2024 - In Q1-Q3 of 2024, the overall industry profit further declined to 65.2 billion yuan [17] - Major lithium salt and material companies earned only 16.3 billion yuan, with lithium iron phosphate cathode companies incurring a loss of -1.9 billion yuan, ternary cathode companies earning 1.8 billion yuan, lithium mining companies earning 10.5 billion yuan, separator companies earning 1.7 billion yuan, electrolyte companies earning 1.9 billion yuan, and anode companies earning 2.3 billion yuan [17] - Battery companies earned 43.4 billion yuan, and equipment companies earned 5.4 billion yuan [17] Gross Margin Trends - The gross margin of electrolyte and anode industries in H1 2024 was 15.5% and 19%, respectively, while the separator industry's gross margin was 25.2% [9] - The gross margin of battery companies remained stable at 10-20% from 2022 to 2024 [31] Industry Outlook for 2025 - In 2025, the industry's profitability is expected to recover as prices stabilize and capacity recedes, with the entire supply chain likely to see profit restoration [6] - The profit growth of battery companies will be based on the overall increase in lithium battery shipments, with gross margins remaining stable [19] - The industry's profit will increasingly trend towards mean reversion, with gross margin levels across different segments becoming more consistent [20] - The core position of battery companies in the industry chain is highlighted as the profit center ultimately shifts to the battery segment [30]