Where Will United Airlines Be in 1 Year?

Core Viewpoint - United Airlines is expected to have a strong operational year in 2025, supported by favorable industry dynamics and corporate travel growth, which may positively impact its share price performance [5][6]. Group 1: Financial Metrics and Projections - United Airlines has a projected P/E ratio of 9.6 for 2024 and an estimated EPS growth of 20.4% in 2025, with a projected P/E of 8.1 for that year [1]. - Delta Air Lines has a projected P/E ratio of 10.3 for 2024, with an estimated EPS growth of 22.6% in 2025 and a projected P/E of 8.4 [1]. - American Airlines has a projected P/E ratio of 10.4 for 2024, with an estimated EPS growth of 36.9% in 2025 and a projected P/E of 7.6 [1]. Group 2: Corporate Travel and Spending - Management at United Airlines anticipates a return of higher-margin corporate travelers, with corporate growth expected to accelerate in the first quarter of 2025 [2]. - A survey conducted by Delta indicates that 85% of corporate respondents expect increased travel spending in 2025, further supporting the positive outlook for corporate travel [2]. Group 3: Industry Metrics and Cost Management - Key airline metrics, RASM and CASM-ex, are showing positive trends, with RASM down 1.6% year-over-year in Q3 but expected to improve moving into Q4 2024 [3]. - United's CASM-ex is projected to decline into Q4 2024 and further into 2025, indicating improved cost management [4]. - The airline industry is experiencing more disciplined behavior, which, along with competitive pressures on low-cost carriers, is creating a favorable pricing environment for United Airlines [4]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - United Airlines' stock has outperformed due to its disciplined approach and greater exposure to the airline industry's recovery, suggesting that the boom-and-bust cycles may become less frequent [6]. - Despite significant stock price increases in 2024, with United up 145% and Delta up 55%, analysts suggest that United's stock remains attractively priced at 8.1 times earnings estimates for 2025 [9]. - The stock performance of United and Delta diverged in 2024, with United benefiting from fewer disruptions and a strategic decision to remove unprofitable capacity [10][11].