高盛展望2025科技行业：AI仍是主旋律，软件和支付行业值得关注

Core Insights - The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to rise by approximately 34% in 2024, marking the 18th increase in 22 years, with a notable "broadening" characteristic in tech stock performance this year [1][22] - The market focus is shifting from infrastructure to specific use cases and efficiency improvements brought by AI, particularly after the launch of ChatGPT over two years ago [2] - A recent CIO survey indicates a significant improvement in global IT spending intentions for the first half of 2025, with the overall IT spending index rising to 79.0, a 5 percentage point increase from July 2024, and well above the long-term average [3] 2024 Tech Sector Overview - Despite a reduction in layoffs in the tech industry compared to 2023, market volatility remains high, with Q3 earnings volatility reaching a 15-year peak, indicating ongoing uncertainty about the future [4] - The tech sector saw an increase of approximately $5.34 trillion in market capitalization in 2024, surpassing the GDP of many countries, highlighting the sector's significant impact [11] - The performance of major tech stocks and internet companies was particularly strong in 2024, with the information technology and communication services sectors rising over 40% according to S&P 500 sub-industry performance data [19] 2025 Outlook - Generative AI is expected to remain the dominant theme in the tech industry in 2025, with a focus on software and payment sectors [8] - Selecting the most promising sub-industries is becoming increasingly challenging, although the semiconductor industry, despite a poor performance in 2024, still plays a crucial role in generative AI and the macroeconomic environment [9] - High valuations and increased investments in large-cap AI stocks will be key factors to monitor [16] Key Questions for 2025 - The top ten key questions for 2025 include the sustainability of the "scale rule" narrative, the development of the autonomous driving market, and trends in large language models [20] - The intersection of AI and software layers, tariffs, and geopolitical factors will also be critical considerations for the market [25][21] Notable Stock Performances - In 2024, some tech stocks performed exceptionally well, such as SOUN with a 912% increase, APP with a 750% increase, and MSTR with a 470% increase, while others like CHGG and SEDG saw declines of 85% and 84% respectively [18]