花开终有时︱重阳投资2025年投资策略报告

Market Overview - The Chinese stock market experienced a significant rebound in 2024 after an initial downturn, driven by macroeconomic policies [1] - The liquidity, institutional framework, and market ecosystem of China's capital markets are undergoing profound positive changes [2] - The net return rate for shareholders in A-shares and H-shares in 2024 has reached or even surpassed that of mature overseas markets, creating conditions for attracting long-term capital [2] Resident Sector Analysis - The resident sector's financial situation is characterized by growing income, shrinking asset values, and slow deleveraging [3] - Official data shows that the growth rate of residents' disposable income has been between 5-6% over the past three years [9] - The weighted average salary growth rate of all Chinese listed companies was 3.5% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2023 [9] - Residents' leverage ratio, measured by "debt/disposable income," reached a historical peak of 147% in Q1 2023 and slowly declined to 143% by Q3 2024 [12] Industry Competitiveness and Shareholder Value - China's industrial competitiveness continues to rise, but investment opportunities in growth sectors are becoming scarcer [7] - The rapid expansion of new industries from 2020-2021 has led to overcapacity and damaged shareholder value [24] - The profitability of Chinese companies has weakened despite increasing industrial competitiveness, partly due to large-scale capacity expansion in emerging industries [7] - The experience of Europe and Japan shows that even with stagnant endogenous profit growth, reasonable capital use and focus on shareholder returns can still yield long-term market returns [7] Trade War and Macro Policy Impact - The potential for further US-China trade war escalation and domestic macro policy adjustments are the most significant variables affecting China's economy in 2025 [17] - The proportion of US-bound exports in China's total exports has decreased from 19% to 14% since the 2018 trade war [18] - If the US imposes additional tariffs, the average tariff rate on Chinese goods could rise to 30%, with a possibility of reaching 40% if China loses its most-favored-nation status [42] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2025 is to "remain optimistic but not impulsive," focusing on both value and growth stocks [32] - High-dividend stocks are attractive due to the widening gap between dividend yields and risk-free interest rates [55] - Growth opportunities are seen in sectors such as technology, advanced manufacturing, biopharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [30] - The Chinese biopharmaceutical industry has reached international standards in production and R&D capabilities, with significant potential for innovation and overseas licensing [57] Market Liquidity and Capital Allocation - China's 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 2%, indicating abundant domestic liquidity [52] - The shift from short-term to long-term capital in the stock market depends on improved risk appetite and institutional reforms, particularly in shareholder returns [52] - The net return rate for shareholders in A-shares is expected to exceed 2% in 2024, while H-shares could surpass 4%, marking a historic shift in the market ecosystem [65]