中金2025年展望 | 电信服务：5G春华秋实，AIDC如日方升

Group 1: Telecom Services - The telecom services sector is entering a return phase for 5G investments, with attractive valuations in a low-interest-rate environment. Operators are expected to maintain stable dividend returns while technology transformation provides long-term growth momentum [1][4][6] - Since the commercial launch of 5G in 2019, operators have seen a steady decline in capital expenditures, supporting free cash flow performance. The reduction in ARPU growth momentum from 4G to 5G is normal, and operators are focusing on quality control in B2B projects, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth [1][4][6] - The telecom operators are actively investing in AI, satellite communication, and quantum technology, which are expected to drive long-term revenue growth. The focus on accounts receivable management has made B2B business bad debt risks relatively controllable [1][4][6] Group 2: Tower Business - The tower business is expected to see significant potential for dividend increases, with stable capital expenditures and abundant free cash flow. By Q4 2025, as the depreciation of existing towers expires, profits are anticipated to increase significantly, opening up space for higher dividends and shareholder returns [1][4][6] Group 3: Data Center Sector - The data center sector is poised for valuation improvement, with a recovery in capital expenditures from cloud vendors expected to drive performance recovery in 2025. Key competitive factors include rapid delivery capabilities, power supply, and location matching [5][4][6] - After years of adjustment, the data center sector's valuation is attractive, and with AI driving industry recovery, further valuation uplift is anticipated. Third-party data center vendors are expected to benefit from increased AI-related investments from domestic cloud vendors [5][4][6] - The demand for data centers is expected to accelerate due to AI applications, with a focus on rapid delivery and energy collaboration becoming critical competitive advantages [5][4][6] Group 4: Financial Performance and Market Trends - The telecom operators have shown a significant increase in net profit growth compared to revenue growth, driven by effective cost control in network operations and management expenses. For instance, China Mobile's network operation maintenance costs grew only by 0.4% year-on-year [1][4][6] - The telecom sector's dividend yield remains historically high, and the market is increasingly focused on cash flow and profit stability rather than revenue growth. This trend is expected to support further valuation increases [1][4][6]