中金 | 智算未来系列十三：AEC，数据中心内部高速短距连接的性价比之选

Core Viewpoints - AEC (Active Electrical Cable) is emerging as a cost-effective solution for high-speed short-distance connections within data centers, offering advantages in terms of signal quality, power consumption, and cost compared to DAC and AOC [2][5][26] - The demand for AEC is driven by CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) actively developing their own AI ASICs and adopting AEC for short-distance connections in AI compute clusters [3][36] - The AEC market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a CAGR of 43% from 2024 to 2029, reaching $1.31 billion by 2029 [42] Technology and Market Trends - AEC integrates Retimer chips at both ends of copper cables, enabling high-speed data transmission over distances up to 7m at 400G rates, with potential for 800G and 1.6T iterations [2][25] - AEC offers a balance between DAC and AOC, providing better signal quality and longer transmission distances than DAC, while being more cost-effective and power-efficient than AOC [2][26] - The AEC market is expected to see rapid growth, with its share in the global server interconnect market projected to increase from 13% in 2024 to 25% by 2029 [42][48] Supply Chain and Industry Dynamics - Retimer chips and copper cables are the core components of AEC, accounting for 50% and 20% of the BOM cost for 800G AEC, respectively [3][44] - Some optical module manufacturers are entering the AEC supply chain, leveraging their assembly capabilities and customer channels to capture opportunities in the copper connection market [45] - The AEC supply chain involves complex processes, including silver-plated copper wire manufacturing, core wire production, and cable assembly, with key players including wire suppliers and cable manufacturers [48] Application Scenarios and Demand Drivers - CSPs like AWS, Microsoft, and xAI are deploying AEC in their AI compute clusters, with AWS's Trainium2-Ultra server architecture using AEC for 3D Torus topology connections [3][37] - The ratio of AI chips to AEC varies across different architectures, with AWS's Trainium2-Ultra requiring a 1:1.5 ratio of Trn2 chips to 400G AEC [37] - The demand for AEC is expected to grow as CSPs increase their use of self-developed ASICs and self-built networks, with AWS alone projected to require 1.8 million 400G AEC units by 2025 [42] Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The AEC market is poised for significant growth, driven by the increasing adoption of high-speed copper connections in data centers and the trend towards self-developed ASICs by CSPs [36][42] - The market is expected to see a shift from 400G to 800G and 1.6T AEC products, with CSPs leading the charge in adopting these higher-speed solutions [3][36] - The AEC market's growth trajectory suggests a potential upward revision of current market size estimates, as CSPs and other industry players continue to invest in AI infrastructure [42][43]