国泰君安：继续看好2025年房地产板块的资源整合和重组型机会

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that interest rates have been rapidly declining since the fourth quarter of 2024, aligning with the central bank's policy direction to guide rates downwards, which is expected to effectively lower real interest rates [1] - The decline in nominal interest rates has already exerted downward pressure on real interest rates, and the anticipated recovery in the economy will lead to a rebound in inflation, further guiding real interest rates down [2] - With the gradual resolution of risks, a more necessary outlook for the real estate industry is emerging, and the long-term value of businesses will gradually reflect in valuations, with optimism for resource integration and restructuring opportunities in the real estate sector by 2025 [3] Group 2 - Recent policies such as the reduction of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), local government bonds, and adjustments in public housing loan rates have contributed to the rapid decline in nominal interest rates [2] - The expectation is that development companies will gradually improve as the market stabilizes and opportunities for restructuring arise [3]