Vistra is Trading Above 50 and 200-Day SMA: Time to Buy the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. (VST) is experiencing a bullish trend, trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, with significant share gains following a strong third-quarter earnings report and expectations for an earnings surprise in the fourth quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - VST has outperformed its industry, the Zacks Utilities sector, and the S&P 500 over the past year [4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST's 2025 earnings per share has increased by 8.3% in the last 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment [12]. - The company reported a year-over-year growth estimate of 56.78% for the current quarter and 33.21% for the current year, reflecting strong revenue expectations [14]. Group 2: Demand and Operational Strength - Rising demand in VST's service territories is driven by the development of large load data centers and the electrification of oil field operations, particularly in the Permian Basin [8]. - VST's ability to produce a high volume of emission-free electricity from various sources, including solar and nuclear, is a key factor in its performance [9]. - The company has a comprehensive hedging program, with approximately 96% hedged for 2025 and 64% for 2026, which supports its financial guidance [11]. Group 3: Shareholder Value and Returns - Vistra has repurchased over $4.25 billion in shares since November 2021, resulting in a 29$3.25 billion more between 2024 and 2026 [15]. - The board has approved a quarterly dividend of 22.15 cents for Q4 2024, reflecting a sequential increase of 0.9% [16]. - VST's trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 10.08%, significantly higher than the industry average of 3.95%, indicating efficient capital allocation [17]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Considerations - Vistra is currently trading at a premium valuation, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.31X compared to the industry average of 15.56X [19]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for clean energy, particularly due to the growth of data centers and electrification initiatives [21].