Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-01-04 09:52Core Viewpoint - The trading rhythm of gold in 2025 will be influenced by the "asymmetric impact" of real interest rates, as highlighted by CITIC Securities research report [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The pace of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of inflation will continue to drive the trading rhythm of gold [2] - U.S. Treasury yields, which represent the traditional holding cost of gold, will still impact gold prices, but a new trading pattern of "rising more than falling" is expected to persist through 2023-2024 [2] Group 2: Long-term Price Support - In the medium to long term, the central bank's gold purchases, representing safe-haven buying, will continue to support the price center of gold [3] - The strong performance of the U.S. dollar and its fundamentals over the past three years has been primarily driven by significant fiscal policies and capital inflows, which have exacerbated the divide between U.S. and non-U.S. markets [3] Group 3: Economic Policies and Vulnerabilities - The MAGA 2.0 policies proposed by Trump may solidify or further enhance large fiscal spending, technological innovation, and global capital rebalancing [3] - However, the vulnerabilities of MAGA 2.0 include a high U.S. debt burden and the fragility of the global trade system [4]