光大证券高瑞东：消费结构呈现多点开花特征

Core Insights - The consumption structure in China is continuously optimizing and upgrading, showing a multi-faceted growth characteristic. The "trade-in" policy has significantly stimulated consumption, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, which are key drivers of recent consumption recovery in China [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Service consumption, including travel and leisure, is becoming more active, reflecting a shift from goods consumption to service consumption. In the first three quarters of 2024, per capita service consumption expenditure increased by 7.6%, outpacing the overall per capita consumption expenditure growth by 2.0 percentage points [2]. - The "trade-in" policy has led to a surge in sales of home appliances, automobiles, and home decoration products, with related sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The county-level consumption market is thriving, with a noticeable trend of consumption moving downwards. As half of the population resides in counties, the rapid penetration of new consumption formats and models is expected to sustain growth in this segment [2]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - Changes in the population age structure are beginning to release the consumption potential of Generation Z and the elderly. Corresponding trends towards personalized and experiential consumption, as well as the silver economy, are anticipated to become new growth points in consumption in the near future [2].