Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-01-05 13:36Core Viewpoint - The short-term market performance is weaker than expected due to various factors including micro liquidity, exchange rate adjustments, policy vacuum, earnings forecasts, and uncertainties brought by Trump [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The underlying logic of the bull market remains intact, with a clear goal to reverse deflation [1] - External factors, such as Trump 2.0, introduce uncertainty but are considered secondary contradictions that affect the rhythm rather than the overall trend [1] Group 2: Financial Market Insights - U.S. Treasury yields have reached high levels, reflecting sufficient feedback on re-inflation and optimistic fundamental expectations [1] - Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks have shown overall stability, with no substantial reasons from fundamentals to drive continuous adjustments in A-shares [1] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Domestic policies are still promising, with signals from the central bank's fourth-quarter meeting indicating potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1] - The "two重两新" policy is expected to be reinforced, and if substantial policy measures are implemented, the market may stabilize and initiate a bullish trend, presenting opportunities during pullbacks [1] Group 4: Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include electronics, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, banking, construction, and food [1]