Rivian Automotive(US:RIVN) ZACKS·2025-01-06 14:56Stock Performance and Delivery Numbers - Rivian Automotive (RIVN) surged 24.45% to close at $16.49, marking its biggest single-day percentage gain since going public [1] - The company delivered 14,183 vehicles in Q4 2024, surpassing Wall Street's estimate of 13,000 units and edging out its Q4 2023 delivery figure of 13,972 units [1] - For the full year 2024, Rivian produced 49,476 vehicles, exceeding its guidance of 47,000–49,000 units, and delivered 51,579 units, aligning with its forecast of 50,500–52,000 units [2] Key Growth Drivers - Rivian has resolved component shortage issues, enabling smooth production of its R1 and RCV platforms [4] - A strategic partnership with Volkswagen (VWAGY) includes a $5.8 billion investment to enhance technological capabilities and accelerate production timelines [5] - The company plans to expand its product portfolio with the introduction of the R2, R3, and R3X models, targeting budget-conscious buyers with the R2 midsize SUV priced at $45,000 [6] - Rivian aims to achieve gross profitability by Q4 2024, with material costs for the R1 lineup projected to decline by 20% in 2025 and R2 model costs potentially decreasing by 45% [7] - A $6.6 billion loan from the U.S. Department of Energy will fund the construction of a new manufacturing facility in Georgia, expected to boost production capacity by 2028 [8] Financial Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates for revenue: $1.31 billion (Q4 2024), $1.10 billion (Q1 2025), $4.56 billion (2024), and $5.20 billion (2025) [10] - Year-over-year revenue growth estimates: -0.54% (Q4 2024), -8.67% (Q1 2025), 2.74% (2024), and 14.19% (2025) [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimates for EPS: -$0.67 (Q4 2024), -$0.86 (Q1 2025), -$4.03 (2024), and -$2.48 (2025) [10] - Year-over-year EPS growth estimates: 50.74% (Q4 2024), 27.73% (Q1 2025), 17.42% (2024), and 38.54% (2025) [10] Challenges and Risks - Rivian's cash and cash equivalents fell to $5.4 billion at the end of Q3 2024 from $7.9 billion at the end of 2023, reflecting significant cash burn [11] - The company lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2024, projecting losses of $2.83 to $2.88 billion, compared to its prior estimate of $2.7 billion [11] - Political uncertainties, including potential shifts in EV policies under Donald Trump's administration, add to the risks [12] - The EV market is becoming increasingly crowded, with established automakers and new entrants vying for market share [12] Valuation and Investment Considerations - Rivian is trading at a forward sales multiple of 3.21, higher than its peer group and its own five-year average of 3 [13] - The stock carries a Value Score of F, indicating stretched valuation [13] - Near-term risks and the stock's recent rally suggest that new investors may find better entry points during a pullback [15]