Rivian's Deliveries Rebound. Is the Stock a Buy in 2025?

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive's stock has experienced significant volatility over the past year, influenced by both positive developments and challenges, with recent production and delivery numbers providing a bullish outlook for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Delivery Performance - In the fourth quarter, Rivian produced 12,727 vehicles, a decrease of approximately 27% year-over-year, while deliveries increased by 2% to 14,183 vehicles, both figures meeting or exceeding management's estimates [4]. - For the entire year, Rivian produced just under 49,500 vehicles and delivered just over 51,500, with guidance for production set at 47,000 to 49,000 vehicles and deliveries at 50,500 to 52,000 vehicles [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Growth Potential - Management has indicated that the supply chain disruption is officially resolved, removing the previous constraints on production, which opens up growth opportunities for 2025, contingent on demand [6]. - The production and delivery levels are expected to modestly support gross margins during the fourth quarter, as more vehicles are processed through the assembly plant at lower fixed costs, which is positive for investor sentiment [7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Rivian's stock may be too speculative and volatile for conservative investors, suggesting it should only represent a small portion of any investment portfolio [8]. - Despite challenges, Rivian has secured significant partnerships, such as the joint venture with Volkswagen and a Department of Energy loan, indicating potential for future growth, although 2025 may lack immediate catalysts with no vehicle launches until 2026 [9]. - The upcoming fourth-quarter conference call on February 20 will provide insights into management's expectations for future deliveries, which could influence investor sentiment [10].