eVTOL Market Soars Too High? Analyst Gives Archer, Joby Downgrades

Market Performance and Valuation - Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation have significantly outperformed the Clean Tech sector, with Archer gaining 145% and Joby gaining 86% over the past six months [2] - The market gains are driven by speculative inflows and market movements aligned with Tesla and Rocket Lab USA, despite regulatory hurdles not being fully cleared [2] - Elevated valuations of both companies could retreat as regulatory challenges persist, with Archer trading as if regulatory hurdles have already been cleared [2] Regulatory and Certification Challenges - Ongoing safety testing and certification remain significant hurdles for both companies, despite potential regulatory easing under the upcoming Trump administration [3] - Archer's partnership with defense tech company Anduril is promising but its immediate valuation upside is capped, with a price target of $9 reflecting incremental earnings potential from defense ventures [3] - Joby's leadership in for-credit testing and partnerships, such as with Toyota, indicate future growth, but certification uncertainties and market volatility imply downside risk, with a raised price target of$6 [4] Growth Potential and Capital Raises - Both companies may require capital raises to fund commercialization efforts, with investors needing to tread carefully due to high short interest that could lead to rapid price declines despite operational progress [5] - Significant long-term potential is seen for both companies as they push toward commercialization, but near-term risks remain tied to market enthusiasm outpacing operational milestones [5]