High Costs to Hurt M&T Bank's Q4 Earnings, Rise in NII & Loans to Aid

Core Viewpoint - M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in quarterly revenues and earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024, with results scheduled for January 16, 2024 [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is projected to have average loans of $135.5 billion in Q4 2024, up from $132.7 billion in Q4 2023, driven by growth in commercial and consumer loans, despite a decline in commercial real estate loans [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is $192.5 billion, reflecting a 1% increase from the previous year [6]. - Management anticipates non-interest income (NII) to be approximately $1.73 billion for Q4 2024, slightly higher than the $1.72 billion reported in the same quarter last year [8]. Group 2: Revenue Drivers - The average total deposits are expected to reach $164 billion, compared to $162 billion in Q4 2023, which is likely to enhance revenues from service charges on deposit accounts [9]. - The consensus estimate for mortgage banking income is $108.1 million, indicating a 3.5% decline from the previous year [11]. - Trust income is estimated to be $174 million, reflecting a 9.4% increase from Q4 2023 [12]. Group 3: Expense Projections - Company expenses are projected to be between $1.31 billion and $1.33 billion for Q4 2024, as the company continues to invest in strengthening its franchises [14]. Group 4: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB's Q4 earnings is $3.70 per share, which represents a 31.7% increase from the year-ago figure [16]. - The consensus estimate for revenues is $2.33 billion, implying a rise of 1.4% from the prior-year level [16].