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Hyatt's Stock Up 20%, What's Next?
MARMarriott International(MAR) Forbes·2025-01-16 13:00

Core Insights - Hyatt Hotels Corporation stock has increased nearly 19% since the start of 2024, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's 22% return and Marriott International's 24% increase during the same period [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Hyatt's total revenues were flat year-over-year at 1.6billion,witha0.91.6 billion, with a 0.9% decline in Net Package revenue per available room (RevPAR) for comparable system-wide all-inclusive resorts [1] - The company reported a 3% year-over-year increase in comparable system-wide RevPAR, although this growth rate has decelerated from 4.7% in Q2 2024 and 5.5% in Q1 2024 [1] - Hyatt achieved a net room growth of 4.3% in Q3 2024 and forecasts RevPAR increases of 3.0% to 4.0% and net room growth of 7.75% to 8.25% for FY 2024 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between 1.10 billion and 1.12billionforFY2024,upfrom1.12 billion for FY 2024, up from 1.03 billion in FY 2023 [1] Business Model and Growth Strategy - Hyatt's business model focuses on fee-based revenue, licensing, and services, leveraging its brand through partnerships with third-party owners and franchisees [2] - The company added 16 new hotels and 2,589 rooms in Q3 2024, with its pipeline expanding 10% year-over-year to 135,000 rooms [2] - Hyatt aims for over 80% of its earnings to come from fee-based revenues by 2025, forecasting fee-based revenues of 1.085billionto1.085 billion to 1.11 billion for FY 2024, representing a 13% increase at the midpoint [2] Stock Performance Analysis - Over the last four years, Hyatt's stock performance has been volatile, with returns of 29% in 2021, -6% in 2022, 45% in 2023, and 21% in 2024 [3] - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 with less volatility, indicating a more stable investment option compared to Hyatt's stock [3]