Earnings Preview: HomeStreet (HMST) Q4 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - HomeStreet (HMST) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues, with a consensus outlook indicating a quarterly loss of $0.21 per share, representing a 75% decrease from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to be released on January 27, and the stock may rise if actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - Revenues are projected to be $41.29 million, reflecting a 10.1% decrease from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 105.71% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for HomeStreet is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -35.94%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8]. - HomeStreet currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2, but the negative Earnings ESP complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, HomeStreet was expected to post a loss of $0.20 per share but actually reported a loss of $0.32, resulting in a surprise of -60% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Conclusion - HomeStreet does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [16].