Carnival Corp's Private Island Strategy Poised For Significant Expansion, Says Analyst

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove maintains a price forecast of $35 and a Buy rating for Carnival Corp (CCL), highlighting the potential of its private islands and exclusive destinations strategy [1]. Group 1: Growth Potential - CCL's strategy to develop private islands is expected to nearly double capacity from 6.5 million to around 11 million passengers by 2030 [1]. - Management emphasized considerable growth potential, projecting a daily capacity of approximately 95,000 guests by 2030, comparable to Disney's Magic Kingdom [2]. - CCL experienced a 13% growth in new-to-cruise customers and a 10% increase in brand repeaters in 2024, indicating strong long-term growth potential [3]. Group 2: Booking and Demand - The company reported solid bookings, with two-thirds of 2025's capacity already booked by December, and all brands are priced higher year-over-year [4]. - Demand is significantly outpacing supply growth, leading management to focus on optimizing sales from existing ships rather than relying on new vessel introductions [4]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - The slower projected newbuild pace is expected to create a favorable supply-demand environment and allow for further debt reduction [5]. - Management aims to improve CCL's balance sheet, targeting investment-grade metrics of approximately 3.5X by FY2026 [5]. - CCL shares are currently trading lower by 0.25% at $25.54 [5].