Robust Growth in AUM & Fee Income to Aid Invesco's Q4 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - Invesco (IVZ) is expected to report an increase in both earnings and revenues for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, with specific estimates indicating positive year-over-year growth [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Invesco's earnings is 51 cents, reflecting an 8.5% increase from the same quarter last year [4]. - The consensus estimate for sales is $1.17 billion, suggesting an 11.7$1.85 trillion, up 2.8% from September 30, 2024, driven by solid inflows and favorable market conditions [5]. Group 2: Fee Estimates - The consensus estimate for investment management fees is $1.02 billion, indicating an 11.6$30.9 million, representing a 58.5% jump from the prior-year quarter [6]. - Service and distribution fees are projected at $376.3 million, implying a 9.2$52.7 million, suggesting a 14.6% rise [6]. Group 3: Cost and Expense Outlook - Invesco's cost-saving initiatives are expected to enhance efficiency, although rising compensation and marketing costs may negatively impact overall expenses [7]. - Management anticipates one-time implementation costs of approximately $15 million related to Alpha in Q4 2024, leading to a modest increase in overall expenses [7]. - The company aims to achieve$60 million in annual net savings through organizational changes, with overall expenses projected to exceed previous guidance of $3 billion [8]. Group 4: Earnings Prediction and Model Insights - The likelihood of Invesco beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is considered low due to a negative Earnings ESP of -6.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [9][10].