International Paper Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What to Expect

Core Viewpoint - International Paper Company (IP) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on January 30, with expectations of revenue growth but a significant decline in earnings year-over-year [1][2]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IP's fourth-quarter revenues is $4.72 billion, reflecting a 2.7% increase from the previous year [2]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is six cents per share, indicating a substantial year-over-year decline of 85.4% [2]. Earnings Surprise History - International Paper has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 28.83% [4]. - The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [6]. Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - Demand has picked up in 2024 after a period of softness in 2023, particularly in the e-commerce channel [7]. - Volumes are expected to decline due to two fewer shipping days, but this may be offset by higher prices and favorable input costs [8]. Segment Performance - The Industrial Packaging segment is projected to see a 4.2% year-over-year drop in volumes, with specific declines in corrugating packaging (5.8%) and containerboard (1.6%) [9]. - Average realized pricing for the Industrial Packaging segment is expected to increase by 6.7% year-over-year, leading to projected revenues of$ 3.93 billion, a 2.2% growth [10]. - The Global Cellulose Fibers segment is anticipated to report a 4.1% decline in volumes but an 8.4% increase in revenues to $711 million, driven by higher prices [12]. Operating Profit Projections - The Industrial Packaging segment's operating profit is expected to decline by 20% to$ 252 million due to higher seasonal costs and increased depreciation from facility closures [11]. - The Global Cellulose Fibers segment is projected to report an operating loss of $235 million, significantly wider than the previous year's loss of$ 58 million [13]. Stock Performance - International Paper's shares have increased by 55.7% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 46.1% [14].