Murphy Oil to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results on January 30, with a prior negative earnings surprise of 2.63% in the last quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Impacting Q4 Results - The fourth-quarter earnings are anticipated to benefit from increased production in both domestic and international assets, particularly from new wells in the Gulf of Mexico and Eagle Ford Shale [3]. - However, production volumes are expected to be negatively impacted by planned onshore downtime of 1,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 1,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of maintenance downtime at non-operated Terra Nova [3]. - The company has improved its balance sheet and liquidity through capital market transactions, and ongoing debt-reduction initiatives are likely to lower capital servicing expenses, enhancing margins [4]. Group 2: Production and Financial Estimates - Murphy Oil expects quarterly production, excluding NCI, to be between 181.5 and 189.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOEPD), with 51% of this expected to be oil [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is $752.05 million, reflecting a decline of 10.92% from the previous year, while the consensus for earnings per share is 62 cents, indicating a 31.1% decrease from the prior year [6]. Group 3: Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for Murphy Oil is -3.85%, and the company holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating that the model does not predict a conclusive earnings beat this time [7][8].