Where Will EVgo Stock Be in 1 Year?

Core Viewpoint - EVgo, a leading electric vehicle (EV) charging network company, is currently undervalued with potential for recovery as it expands its operations and improves financial metrics despite challenges in the EV market [1][10]. Company Overview - EVgo was established in 2010 as part of a settlement involving NRG Energy and the California Public Utilities Commission, with an initial investment of $100 million to create an EV charging network [2][3]. - The company went public in July 2021 through a SPAC merger, with an initial stock price of $15.05, but has since declined to approximately $3 [1][2]. Financial Performance - EVgo's revenue grew from $22 million in 2021 to $161 million in 2023, closely aligning with its pre-IPO projections [3]. - The company expects its revenue for the full year to rise by 55%-65% to between $250 million and $265 million, while adjusted EBITDA is projected to improve from negative $59 million to between negative $32 million and negative $28 million [8][9]. Operational Metrics - As of Q3 2023, EVgo operates 2,740 charging stalls, with projections to increase to 3,680 by Q3 2024 [7]. - The network throughput is expected to grow from 37 GWh in Q3 2023 to 78 GWh by Q3 2024, and total customers are anticipated to rise from 785,000 to 1.2 million in the same period [7]. Market Position and Competition - EVgo faces competition from major players like Tesla and ChargePoint, but maintains a partnership with General Motors, which helps drive customer traffic to its network [5][12]. - The company has increased its number of outstanding shares by 90% since going public, which poses a dilution risk [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts project EVgo's revenue to grow by 41% in 2025 to $362 million, with a positive adjusted EBITDA of $7 million, and further growth to $479 million in 2026 with an adjusted EBITDA of $50 million [9]. - The company aims to triple the size of its EV charging network by 2029, supported by financial backing from the U.S. Department of Energy [10][12].