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Prediction: 1 Stock That Will Be Worth More Than Wolfspeed 1 Year From Now
WOLFWolfspeed(WOLF) The Motley Fool·2025-01-28 10:30

Core Viewpoint - Ambarella is positioned for a brighter future compared to Wolfspeed, which faces significant challenges in its core business and valuation [1][4][11]. Group 1: Wolfspeed Overview - Wolfspeed's stock price has declined over 90% in the past two years due to rising interest rates impacting growth in green energy and EV markets, and increased production costs [2]. - The company has been restructuring, including workforce reductions and leadership changes, with analysts expecting a 2% revenue dip in fiscal 2025 [3]. - Wolfspeed's current trading valuation is 8 times this year's sales, with an enterprise value of 6.2billion,whichisconsideredhighgivenitschallenges[4][11].Group2:AmbarellaOverviewAmbarellaspecializesinimageprocessingsystemsonachipandcomputervisionchipsforvariousapplications,includingsecuritycamerasandconnectedvehicles[5].ThecompanyfacedheadwindssuchasU.S.regulatoryrestrictionsonsalestoChinesecustomers,acoolingIoTmarket,andcompetitionfromotherchipmakers[6].Despitethesechallenges,Ambarellasrevenuegrewby1.76.2 billion, which is considered high given its challenges [4][11]. Group 2: Ambarella Overview - Ambarella specializes in image processing systems-on-a-chip and computer vision chips for various applications, including security cameras and connected vehicles [5]. - The company faced headwinds such as U.S. regulatory restrictions on sales to Chinese customers, a cooling IoT market, and competition from other chipmakers [6]. - Despite these challenges, Ambarella's revenue grew by 1.7% in fiscal 2023 and is expected to rebound with a projected 23% growth in fiscal 2025, driven by its automotive and IoT sectors [7][8]. Group 3: Future Projections - Ambarella's CEO indicated record levels of AI revenue, contributing to a higher average selling price, with expectations for continued growth in automotive and IoT markets [9]. - Analysts forecast revenue and adjusted earnings growth of 16% and 44%, respectively, for fiscal 2026, supported by the increasing demand for computer vision chips [9]. - Ambarella's enterprise value is currently 3.1 billion, trading at 10 times next year's projected sales, with potential for significant valuation increases if market conditions improve [12]. Group 4: Comparative Valuation - Wolfspeed's enterprise value includes 3.1billioninlongtermdebt,whileAmbarellahasnolongtermdebt,whichmayaffecttheirrelativevaluations[12].AmbarellacouldpotentiallysurpassWolfspeedinvaluationifitcontinuestomeetorexceedgrowthexpectations,withapossibleenterprisevalueof3.1 billion in long-term debt, while Ambarella has no long-term debt, which may affect their relative valuations [12]. - Ambarella could potentially surpass Wolfspeed in valuation if it continues to meet or exceed growth expectations, with a possible enterprise value of 3.8 billion by the end of fiscal 2026 [12][13].