Joby Aviation Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Core Viewpoint - Joby Aviation, an eVTOL aircraft developer, faces mixed opinions as it struggles with revenue generation and high losses, despite potential long-term growth in the eVTOL market [2][3][9] Company Overview - Joby's S4 eVTOL aircraft can carry one pilot and four passengers, has a range of 100 miles, and a maximum speed of 200 mph, positioning itself as a cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative to helicopters [4] - The company has a $131 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense to deliver up to nine eVTOL aircraft, with the first delivery made in September 2023 [5] Bearish Arguments - Joby has overestimated its growth potential, projecting $131 million in revenue for 2024 but only generating $81,000 in the first nine months of 2024, with expectations of $205,000 for the full year [6] - Analysts predict revenue growth to $98 million by 2026, but with an enterprise value of $6.36 billion, Joby trades at 65 times this estimate, compared to competitor Archer Aviation's 25 times [7] - Joby is expected to incur annual net losses of at least $500 million from 2024 to 2026, and has increased its share count by 27% since going public, raising concerns about share dilution [8][9] Bullish Arguments - The eVTOL market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 54.9% from 2024 to 2030, which could benefit Joby if the market takes off [10] - Joby has strong backing from investors like Toyota and Delta Air Lines, with a robust balance sheet showing $710 million in cash and short-term investments, totaling about $1.4 billion when including additional funding [11][12] - Potential mergers or acquisitions with peers or major companies could lead to significant premiums for Joby’s stock [13] Investment Outlook - While Joby has potential for significant expansion, its current stock price may already reflect too much future growth, making competitors like Archer Aviation more attractive [14]