Here's How to Play Pfizer Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on February 4, with consensus estimates for sales at $17.50 billion and earnings at 48 cents per share, while 2025 earnings estimates have slightly declined from$2.92 to $2.88 per share [1][2]. Earnings Performance - Pfizer has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the past four quarters, achieving an average earnings surprise of 74.50$3.27 billion, while Paxlovid is estimated at $589.0 million [7]. - Non-COVID operational revenues have improved, with estimates for Vyndaqel/Vyndamax sales at$1.52 billion and Eliquis alliance revenues at $1.66 billion [8][9]. - Sales for the Prevnar family of vaccines are estimated at$1.56 billion, while the model estimates are slightly lower at $1.53 billion [10]. Product Performance - Sales of key oncology products like Ibrance may have declined due to competitive pressures, but other products such as Xtandi and Padcev are expected to have performed well [11]. - Newly launched drugs and acquisitions are anticipated to contribute positively to top-line growth, with several new therapies expected to drive revenue [12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has decreased by 12.6% over the past six months, slightly better than the industry average decline of 13.0% [14]. - The stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 9.28, which is lower than the industry average of 16.0 and its own 5-year mean of 11.22, indicating attractive valuation [16]. Future Outlook - Pfizer expects a revenue CAGR of approximately 6% from 2025 to 2030, driven by new products and acquisitions [19]. - The company maintains a strong cash position from COVID product profits, which supports dividends, share buybacks, and debt reduction [22].