Can AON Beat Q4 Earnings on Commercial Risk Solutions Strength?

Core Viewpoint - Aon plc is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on January 31, 2025, with earnings estimated at $4.24 per share and revenues at $4.19 billion, indicating a year-over-year earnings increase of 9% and revenue growth of 24.2% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The earnings estimate for Aon has remained stable over the past week, with a consensus indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming quarter [2]. - Aon has missed earnings consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of negative 0.5% [3]. Earnings Predictions - Aon's Earnings ESP is +2.75%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a potential earnings beat this quarter [4]. - The Commercial Risk Solutions segment is projected to see revenues grow by 16.7% year-over-year, while the Health Solutions segment is expected to grow by 46.3% [6][8]. Segment Performance - The Reinsurance Solutions segment is estimated to grow by 4.4% year-over-year, supported by favorable retention rates and new business generation [9]. - The Wealth Solutions segment is anticipated to increase by 34.2% from the previous year, driven by demand for advisory services [10]. Expense Considerations - Total operating expenses are expected to rise by over 21%, primarily due to increased compensation and benefits costs, with other general expenses estimated at nearly $533 million and compensation costs at $2.09 billion [11][12].