U.S. Steel to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - United States Steel Corporation (X) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on January 30, with indications of weaker performance due to declining selling prices and demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - U.S. Steel has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 50.4% [2]. - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is $3,476.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 16.1% [7]. - The expected earnings for the fourth quarter are pegged at a loss of 25 cents, with an Earnings ESP of +1.33% [5]. Market Conditions - U.S. Steel's shares have decreased by 24.5% over the past year, closely aligning with the Zacks Steel Producers industry's decline of 24.6% [3]. - Steel prices have dropped significantly, with benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices falling over 40% from $1,200 per short ton at the beginning of 2024 [11]. - Current HRC prices are around $700 per short ton, indicating a challenging market environment [12]. Segment Performance - The Flat-Rolled segment is expected to be negatively impacted by lower selling prices and volumes, while the Mini Mill segment faces challenges from weaker volumes and ramp-related costs [14]. - The Tubular segment may benefit from higher volumes and lower costs [14]. - Average realized prices per ton for various segments are projected to decline, with the Flat-Rolled unit at $925 (down 6.8%), Mini Mill at $779 (down 2.6%), European segment at $776 (down 3.2%), and Tubular segment at $1,724 (down 4.5%) [15]. Guidance and Outlook - U.S. Steel has lowered its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the fourth quarter to approximately $150 million from a previous estimate of $225-$275 million due to ongoing pressure on steel prices and costs related to ramping up production at its new mill [13].