Buy, Sell, Or Hold LMT Stock At $460?

Core Viewpoint - Lockheed Martin reported mixed Q4 2024 results, with revenues missing expectations but earnings exceeding estimates, leading to an 8% drop in stock price post-announcement [1][6]. Financial Performance - Q4 2024 revenues were $18.6 billion, reflecting a 1.3$7.58 per share, compared to consensus estimates of $18.8 billion and$6.62 respectively [1][3]. - The company faced a $1.7 billion pre-tax loss from classified programs, significantly impacting the bottom line, which fell to$2.22, a 71% year-over-year decline [5]. Segment Analysis - The Missiles and Fire Control segment experienced an 8% sales growth, and Aeronautics sales increased by 5%, driven by higher F-35 production volumes [4]. - However, these gains were offset by a 10% decline in Rotary & Mission Systems sales and a 13% decline in the Space segment, attributed to lower production volumes in various programs [4]. Outlook - Lockheed Martin's 2025 sales forecast is $74.25 billion, with earnings expected at$27.15 per share, both below consensus estimates [5]. - The stock has shown volatility over the past four years, with returns of 3% in 2021, 40% in 2022, -4% in 2023, and 10% in 2024 [6]. Valuation - Current market price is around $460, with an estimated valuation of$515 per share, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 12% based on a forward P/E multiple of 19x [8].