Earnings Preview: RMR Group (RMR) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - RMR Group is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2024, with the actual results being crucial for its near-term stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 28.6%, while revenues are projected to be $263.5 million, a slight increase of 0.7% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 8.97% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for RMR Group is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.45%, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [10][11]. - A positive Earnings ESP is generally a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank, but RMR Group currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict a positive outcome [8][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, RMR Group was expected to post earnings of $0.38 per share but only achieved $0.34, resulting in a surprise of -10.53% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once, indicating a pattern of underperformance [13]. Conclusion - RMR Group does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors when making decisions regarding this stock ahead of its earnings release [16].