Thinking of Buying Ford Ahead of Q4 Earnings? Here's What to Know

Core Viewpoint - Ford is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 5, with earnings estimated at 34 cents per share and automotive revenues at $43.6 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 17.2% in earnings and a slight revenue increase of 0.7% [1][2]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford's automotive revenues in 2025 is projected at $166 billion, reflecting a 4% decline year-over-year, while the full-year EPS estimate is $1.71, indicating a contraction of 3.4% [4]. - In the fourth quarter of 2024, Ford's U.S. sales rose approximately 9% year-over-year to 530,660 units, with electric and hybrid vehicle deliveries increasing by 16.3% and 26.5%, respectively [6]. Segment Performance - The Ford Blue unit's revenue estimate is $25.7 billion, down 2% year-over-year, with an EBIT estimate of $1.26 billion, up from $813 million in Q4 2023 [8]. - The Ford Model e unit, focusing on electric vehicles, is expected to generate revenues of $1.22 million, a decline from $1.60 billion in the same period last year, with a loss before interest and taxes estimated at $1.30 billion, narrower than the previous year's $1.57 billion [9]. - The Ford Pro unit's revenue estimate is $16.5 billion, reflecting a 7% year-over-year growth, but its EBIT is expected to decline to $1.6 billion from $1.8 billion in Q4 2023 [10]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Ford's stock has underperformed compared to the industry, sector, S&P 500, and its key competitor, GM [11]. - Ford is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.24, below its five-year median of 0.31, and at a discount compared to the industry's 2.44 [14]. Operational Challenges - The Ford Model e business is facing significant losses due to pricing pressures and increased investments in next-generation EVs, which are straining near-term financials [16]. - The company is also dealing with high warranty costs stemming from quality issues with older models, which are expected to remain a challenge in 2025 [16][17].