Amgen Set to Report Q4 Earnings: Is a Beat in the Cards?

Core Viewpoint - Amgen is expected to exceed earnings expectations for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, with a consensus estimate of $8.84 billion in sales and $5.01 per share in earnings [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Strong volume growth is anticipated for Amgen's products, including Evenity, Repatha, Prolia, Kyprolis, and Blincyto, although prices are expected to decline due to increased rebates [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Prolia, Repatha, Evenity, and Blincyto is $1.18 billion, $551 million, $413 million, and $339 million, respectively [2] - Estimates for Prolia, Repatha, and Evenity sales are $1.05 billion, $542.9 million, and $418.3 million, respectively, with Tezspire and Tavneos contributing $274.4 million and $102.9 million to top-line growth [3] Group 2: New Product Launches - The U.S. launch of Imdelltra for advanced small cell lung cancer is progressing well, with a 200% sequential growth in the third quarter, expected to continue into the fourth quarter [4] - Tepezza sales are projected to be flat to slightly down, with efforts to reorganize and expand the sales force targeting low clinical activity score patients [6] Group 3: Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $611 million, while the estimate for Enbrel is $861 million, with Amgen's estimates being $605.4 million and $874.5 million, respectively [5] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the third quarter due to historically high R&D costs [7] Group 4: Pipeline Developments - Updates on the pipeline candidate MariTide for obesity are anticipated, with recent phase II study results showing an average weight loss of approximately 20% over 52 weeks, which fell short of investor expectations [8] Group 5: Earnings Surprise History - Amgen has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 4.10% over the last four quarters, although the stock has declined 10.6% over the past year [10]