Methanex's Q4 Earnings Outpace Estimates, Revenues Miss

Core Viewpoint - Methanex Corporation reported a strong performance in Q4 2024, with net income and adjusted earnings per share significantly increasing compared to the previous year, although net sales fell short of consensus estimates Financial Performance - Q4 2024 net income was $45 million or 67 cents per share, up from $33 million or 50 cents per share in the prior-year quarter [1] - Adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.24 from 52 cents in the year-ago quarter, surpassing the Zacks consensus estimate of $1.01 [1] - Net sales for Q4 2024 were $949 million, missing the Zacks consensus estimate of $1,023.7 million, but showing a growth of approximately 3% year over year [2] - Full-year net sales for 2024 were $3,720 million, slightly down from $3,723 million in 2023, while adjusted earnings for the full year increased to $3.72 per share from $2.25 per share in 2023 [5] Production and Sales - Production in Q4 2024 was 1,868,000 tons, up around 5% year over year, driven by higher output in Chile, New Zealand, Geismar, and Egypt [3] - Sales volume for the reported quarter was 2,564,000 tons, down around 10% year over year, and below the estimate of 2,727,000 tons [3] - The average realized price per ton of methanol increased to $370 from $356 in the previous quarter and $322 in the prior-year quarter, beating the estimate of $368 [4] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, Methanex returned $50 million to shareholders through regular dividends and repaid a $300 million bond due in December with cash flows generated from operations [6] - The operating cash flow for Q4 2024 was $281 million, and the company ended the year with $892 million in cash [6] Future Outlook - Methanex's production guidance for 2025 is approximately 7.5 million tons, excluding additional production from OCI assets post-acquisition [7] - In Q1 2025, significantly higher adjusted EBITDA is expected compared to Q4 2024, with produced sales anticipated to be near Q4 2024 levels and a higher average realized price projected between $395 to $405 per ton for January and February [8] Stock Performance - MEOH stock has gained 12.4% over the past year, contrasting with a 0.3% decline in the industry [9]