Match Group to Report Q4 Earnings: Buy, Hold or Sell the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Match Group (MTCH) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 4, with a consensus estimate for revenues at $856.04 million, indicating a 1.18% decrease year-over-year, while earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at 84 cents, reflecting a 3.70% growth year-over-year despite a 2.3% downward revision in the past 30 days [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 revenues is $856.04 million, suggesting a decrease of 1.18% from the previous year [2]. - The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 84 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 3.70% [2]. - Match Group's earnings have beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 21.55% [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The fourth-quarter performance is expected to benefit from sustained investments in product development, enhancing user experience and engagement across platforms [4]. - Tinder's global expansion and localized features are likely to have increased the user base and created revenue growth opportunities [5]. - The company operates a diverse portfolio of over 45 brands, including Tinder, Match.com, and OkCupid, which cater to various user preferences and markets [6]. Group 3: Marketing and User Engagement - Targeted marketing strategies and advertising campaigns are anticipated to have increased brand visibility and attracted new users, contributing to growth [7]. - However, the company faced challenges with user registrations and reactivations, leading to a decline in monthly active users (MAU), particularly a 9% year-over-year decline in Tinder's MAU [8]. - Recent ALC initiatives launched by Tinder, while well-received, negatively impacted subscription revenues, which may affect fourth-quarter performance [9]. Group 4: Earnings Prediction Model - According to the Zacks model, Match Group has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.20% and a Zacks Rank 3, indicating a reasonable chance of an earnings beat [10].