预见金蛇｜施罗德基金安昀：科技和消费将成为2025年市场主要驱动力

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to show characteristics of shareholder returns in 2024, with dividends and buybacks exceeding financing and reductions, indicating a positive cycle [1][2][3]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is projected to experience moderate recovery in 2025, driven primarily by technology and consumption, with a stabilizing real estate market supporting economic transformation [1][2][3]. Market Performance - In 2024, the capital market presented structural opportunities, with major indices achieving close to double-digit annual returns and notable rebounds in both halves of the year [2]. - The A-share market has shown a positive shift, with total dividends and buybacks significantly surpassing IPOs, refinancing, and shareholder reductions, marking a favorable change in net financing dynamics [2][3]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate market has stabilized after nearly three years of adjustment, with sales rebounding for approximately three months by the fourth quarter of 2024, which is crucial for supporting economic transformation [3]. Investment Confidence - There is strong confidence in investing in China, as the adjustment and upgrading of the economic structure, along with the development of emerging industries and high-tech sectors, are expected to provide new growth points for the stock market [3]. - The valuation of the Chinese market remains attractive globally, with expectations for the weight of Chinese stocks in global investment portfolios to gradually recover [3].