Murphy USA Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

Core Viewpoint - Murphy USA (MUSA) is expected to report fourth-quarter results on February 5, with earnings estimated at $6.43 per share and revenues at $5 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline in both metrics [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the previous quarter, MUSA reported earnings per share of $7.20, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.64, although revenues of $5.2 billion fell short by 6.5% due to weak petroleum product sales [3]. - MUSA has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with a recent upward revision of 2 cents (0.3%) for the upcoming quarter's earnings estimate [4]. Revenue and Sales Projections - The total fuel contribution for MUSA is projected to increase by 1.8% year over year to $400.1 million, driven by stronger retail profits [5]. - Petroleum product sales are expected to reach $4.1 billion, reflecting a 3.5% increase from the prior year's $4 billion, while merchandise sales are anticipated to grow to $1.1 billion from $1 billion in the same quarter last year [6]. Cost and Margin Considerations - The company's petroleum product costs are expected to rise by 3.8% year over year to $3.8 billion, which may impact the bottom line negatively [8]. - Fuel margins are projected to improve slightly to 33.1 cents per gallon from 32.5 cents in the fourth quarter of 2023 [5]. Earnings Expectations - The Zacks model indicates uncertainty regarding MUSA's ability to beat earnings estimates, with an Earnings ESP of -1.35% [10]. - MUSA currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook compared to other firms in the energy sector [11].