Molina Healthcare to Report Q4 Earnings: What Do the Estimates Say?

Core Viewpoint - Molina Healthcare, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 5, 2025, with earnings estimated at $5.81 per share and revenues of$10.5 billion, indicating a year-over-year earnings increase of 32.7% and revenue growth of 16.1% [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - The earnings estimate for Molina Healthcare has remained stable over the past month, with a consensus indicating a significant year-over-year increase [2]. - The company has a history of exceeding earnings estimates, having beaten the consensus in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 2.4% [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - Despite a positive Earnings ESP of +1.91%, Molina Healthcare holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), which diminishes the likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [4]. Factors Influencing Q4 Results - Growth in the Medicaid and Medicare customer base is expected to drive premium growth, with a consensus estimate indicating a 17.8% year-over-year increase in premiums for the fourth quarter [6]. - Medicaid premiums are projected to grow nearly 15% year-over-year, while Medicare premiums are expected to reach $1.35 billion, reflecting a 28% increase [6]. Membership Growth - Contract wins and renewals from federal and state authorities are likely to contribute to membership growth in Molina's Medicaid and Medicare segments [7]. - Medicaid membership is expected to increase by 10.8% year-over-year, while Medicare membership is projected to grow by 44.4% [9]. Medical Care Ratio (MCR) - The consensus estimate for the medical care ratio in the Marketplace is pegged at 78.16%, down from 79.80% a year ago, indicating improved margins [10]. - The total MCR is estimated at 88.7%, a slight decrease from 89.1% year-over-year, suggesting potential for growing margins [10]. Cost and Income Challenges - Rising costs and a projected 5.1% decline in investment income may pose challenges for Molina Healthcare, with total operating expenses expected to increase by over 11% from the previous year [11].