Will Lower U.S. High-Yield Trading Affect MarketAxess' Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - MarketAxess Holdings Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 6, 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.70 per share and revenues at$203.35 million, reflecting a year-over-year revenue growth of 3.1% despite a projected earnings decline of 7.6% [1][2]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MarketAxess' total revenues for 2024 is $818 million, indicating an 8.7$7.25, suggesting a growth of approximately 5.8% year-over-year [3]. - The consensus estimate for commissions in Q4 is $176.7 million, representing nearly 3$13.1 million, implying a 9.5% rise from the previous year [10]. Trading Volume Insights - Higher trading volumes and market share gains across credit product lines are anticipated to boost credit commission revenues, with total trading volume expected to increase by 33.3% year-over-year [7]. - Eurobonds trading volumes are projected to grow by 14.6% year-over-year, while U.S. high-grade trading volume is expected to see a 14.7% increase, with some estimates suggesting a 17% rise [9]. Expense Projections - Total expenses for the fourth quarter are expected to rise to around $126 million, reflecting an increase of nearly 5% year-over-year, driven by higher employee compensation and technology costs [12]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for MarketAxess, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.75% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating uncertainty regarding earnings performance [5].