Mattel Stock Jumps 15% On Positive Outlook, Despite Tariff Concerns

Core Insights - Mattel ended 2024 positively, exceeding sales and earnings expectations in Q4, leading to a stock price increase of over 15% due to a favorable outlook for 2025 [1][2] - The company forecasts a full-year net sales growth of 2% to 3% and adjusted earnings per share growth of 2% to 6% for 2025, although tariffs may negatively impact consumer demand [2][4] Company Performance - Mattel reported Q4 net sales of $1.646 billion, a 2% increase, and adjusted earnings per share of 35 cents, which was 70% above analysts' expectations of 20 cents [6] - The growth was driven by strong sales of Hot Wheels and Uno, while Barbie sales declined by 4% compared to the previous year [6] Manufacturing Strategy - The company is diversifying its manufacturing footprint, sourcing from seven countries, with China expected to account for less than 40% of global production [4][5] - Currently, less than 10% of toys are sourced from Mexico, and none from Canada, with plans to ensure no single country represents more than 25% of total global production by 2027 [5] Industry Outlook - The toy industry faced challenges in 2024, with overall sales down 0.6% globally and 0.3% in the U.S., but there is optimism for a return to growth in 2025 [11][12] - Mattel's CEO expressed confidence in the industry's fundamentals and expected growth, supported by a strong product lineup and upcoming movie releases [12]