What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Shopify (SHOP) Q4 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - Shopify (SHOP) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.44 per share, reflecting a 29.4% increase year over year, with revenues projected at $2.72 billion, a 27% year-over-year growth [1]. Group 1: Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 0.8% over the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are significant indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3]. Group 2: Revenue Projections - The consensus estimate for 'Revenues- Merchant solutions' is $2.07 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 27.9% [4]. - Analysts predict 'Revenues- Subscription solutions' to be $650.17 million, indicating a 23.8% increase from the previous year [5]. Group 3: Key Metrics - 'Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)' is expected to reach $92.81 billion, up from $75.1 billion year over year [5]. - 'Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)' is projected at $181.60 million, compared to $149 million in the same quarter last year [5]. - Analysts estimate 'Shopify Plus contributed' revenue to be $56.88 million, up from $46 million in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Gross Payments Volume (GPV)' is expected to reach $58.93 billion, compared to $45.1 billion year over year [6]. Group 4: Profit Estimates - The consensus for 'Gross Profit- Merchant solutions' is $788.12 million, compared to $634 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Gross Profit- Subscription solutions' is forecasted to be $528.89 million, up from $428 million year over year [7]. Group 5: Stock Performance - Over the past month, Shopify shares have increased by 13.1%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a 2.1% change [7].