Zacks Industry Outlook Tourmaline, Ovintiv and Arc Resources

Core Insights - The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - Canadian industry is experiencing renewed strength due to market shifts and infrastructure advancements, particularly with energy exports to the U.S. surging to a trade surplus of C $11.3 billion in late 2024 [1][5] - The Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) has significantly increased capacity and improved Canada's position in global markets by facilitating better access to international pricing [2][6] - Natural gas demand has surged due to severe cold weather, tightening supply and driving prices higher [2][7][8] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil imports has been less disruptive than anticipated, providing stability to the industry [2][9] Industry Overview - The Zacks Oil and Gas - Canadian E&P industry comprises companies focused on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, with operations primarily in Canada [3] - The industry's performance is heavily influenced by the economics of supply and demand, with cash flow primarily determined by realized commodity prices [4] Key Trends - Strengthened Trade Surplus: Canada's energy exports to the U.S. increased significantly, with crude oil exports rising 11.8% in Q4 2024, contributing to a trade surplus increase from C$ 8.2 billion to C $11.3 billion [5] - Oil Transport Breakthrough: The TMX expansion began transporting oil in 2024, easing transportation constraints and allowing Canadian producers to access international markets [6] - Cold Weather Impact: Sustained low temperatures have driven heating demand, particularly in regions reliant on natural gas, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance [7][8] - Mitigated Tariff Impact: The 10% tariff on Canadian oil imports is less than the feared 25%, allowing for some shipments to remain exempt and providing pricing leverage through the TMX [9] Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 4.74, lower than the S&P 500's 18.93 but above the sector's 4.42 [14] - Over the past five years, the industry has seen an EV/EBITDA range from 2.91X to 14.49X, with a median of 5.07X [14] Notable Companies - **Arc Resources**: Canada's largest pure-play Montney producer, focusing on cost leadership and LNG expansion, with a projected 69.8% year-over-year EPS growth for 2025 [15][16] - **Ovintiv**: An independent E&P operator with a diversified portfolio, known for disciplined expense management and strong cash flow generation, with a market capitalization of approximately$ 11.3 billion [17][18] - Tourmaline Oil: The largest natural gas producer in Canada, emphasizing strategic acquisitions and cost efficiencies, with an expected EPS growth rate of 13% over the next three to five years [19][20]