Martin Marietta to Report Q4 Earnings: Things to Keep in Mind

Core Viewpoint - Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 12, with mixed expectations for earnings and revenues based on recent performance and market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, the company's earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.8% and 1.7%, respectively, with year-over-year declines of 15% in earnings and 5.3% in revenues [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $4.60 per share, a decrease from $4.65 in the past 30 days, indicating a 0.7% decline from the previous year's figure of $4.63 per share [3]. - The consensus estimate for net sales is $1.65 billion, reflecting a 2.8% increase from the prior year's $1.61 billion [3]. Revenue Drivers - Fourth-quarter revenues are expected to improve year-over-year due to strong pricing gains in aggregates, robust public construction activity, and accretive acquisitions [4]. - The company anticipates a 5% increase in shipments, recovering from a 4% decline in the previous quarter, based on observed trends and reasonable estimations [6]. - Aggregates pricing is projected to rise to $22.24 per ton, marking a 10% year-over-year growth, with aggregates revenues expected to increase to $1.20 billion from $1.02 billion a year ago [6]. Segment Performance - The Building Material segment, which comprised 95.7% of total revenues in Q3 2024, is expected to see a 4.3% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.60 billion, with gross profit estimated at $470.8 million compared to $461.3 million a year ago [7]. - Magnesia Specialties revenues are expected to rise 4.2% year-over-year to $79.2 million, with gross profit projected at $21.9 million, down from $23 million reported a year ago [8]. Challenges - Adverse weather conditions, including severe storms and hurricanes, have negatively impacted aggregates volumes, particularly in the East Division, and may have affected construction activity [9]. - Cement revenues are expected to decline 32.5% year-over-year to $108.8 million, with cement volume pegged at 0.6 million tons, down 37% from a year ago, although cement pricing is anticipated to rise 7.1% to $191.88 per ton [10]. - Elevated operating costs, including higher inflation, transportation, insurance, and labor costs, are likely to pressure the bottom line in the fourth quarter [11]. Earnings Prediction - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Martin Marietta, with an Earnings ESP of -1.90% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [12][13].